Bagyong Egay Intensifies according to PAGASA Latest Update

Accordingto the latest PAGASA Bulletin issued on 23 of July at 11 pm, EGAY INTENSIFIES INTO A TYPHOON OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA EAST NORTHEAST OF BICOL PENINSULA.

TROPICAL CYCLONE BULLETIN NO. 11
Typhoon #EgayPH (DOKSURI)
Issued at 11:00 PM, 23 July 2023
Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin at 5:00 AM tomorrow.

Location of Center (10:00 PM): The center of the eye of Typhoon EGAY was estimated based on all available data at 490 km East Northeast of Daet, Camarines Norte or 620 km East of Baler, Aurora (15.2°N, 127.4°E).

Intensity: Maximum sustained winds of 120 km/h near the center, gustiness of up to 150 km/h, and central pressure of 975 hPa

Present Movement: West northwestward at 10 km/h

Extent of Tropical Cyclone Winds: Strong to typhoon-force winds extend outwards up to 550 km from the center

TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNALS (TCWS) IN EFFECT

TCWS No. 2
Wind threat: Gale-force winds
Warning lead time: 24 hours
Range of wind speeds: 62 to 88 km/h (Beaufort 8 to 9)
Potential impacts of winds: Minor to moderate threat to life and property

LUZON:
The northeastern portion of Catanduanes (Pandan, Bagamanoc, Panganiban, Viga, Gigmoto)

TCWS No. 1
Wind threat: Strong winds
Warning lead time: 36 hours
Range of wind speeds: 39 to 61 km/h (Beaufort 6 to 7)
Potential impacts of winds: Minimal to minor threat to life and property

LUZON:
Batanes, Cagayan including Babuyan Islands, Isabela, Quirino, the northeastern portion of Nueva Vizcaya (Diadi, Bagabag, Quezon, Kasibu, Solano, Villaverde), Apayao, Kalinga, Abra, Ifugao, Mountain Province, the northern portion of Aurora (Casiguran, Dilasag, Dinalungan, Dipaculao), Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, the rest of Catanduanes, Albay, and Sorsogon.

VISAYAS:
Northern Samar, Eastern Samar, and Samar

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND AREAS
Heavy Rainfall Outlook
Forecast accumulated rainfall tonight through tomorrow evening
• 50-100 mm: Catanduanes, the northeastern portion of Camarines Sur, and the northern portion of Camarines Norte

Forecast accumulated rainfall tomorrow evening through Tuesday evening
• 100-200 mm: Babuyan Islands and the northeastern portion of mainland Cagayan
• 50-100 mm: The rest of Cagayan, the eastern portion of Isabela, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, Abra, and Apayao

Forecast accumulated rainfall on Tuesday evening through Wednesday evening
• Above 200 mm: Batanes, Babuyan Islands, northeastern portion of mainland Cagayan, Ilocos Norte, and the northern portion of Ilocos Sur
• 100-200 mm: Cagayan, Apayao, Abra, the rest of Ilocos Sur, the northern portion of La Union,
• 50-100 mm: The rest of La Union, Benguet, the western portion of Mountain Province, and Kalinga

Forecast rainfall are generally higher in elevated or mountainous areas. Under these conditions, flooding and rain-induced landslides are likely especially in areas that are highly or very highly susceptible to these hazard as identified in hazard maps and in localities that experienced considerable amounts of rainfall for the past several days.

In addition, EGAY may also enhance the Southwest Monsoon, bringing occasional rains over several areas of the country in the next three days. For more information, refer to Weather Advisory #3 for Southwest Monsoon issued at 11:00 PM today.

Severe Winds

Minor to moderate impacts from gale-force winds are possible within any of the areas where Wind Signal No. 2. Minimal to minor impacts from strong winds are also possible within any of the areas where Wind Signal No.1 is hoisted. Current forecast scenario shows that the highest wind signal that may be hoisted will be Wind Signal No. 4 or 5 (e.g., typhoon-force wind threat)

EGAY and the enhanced Southwest Monsoon may also bring gusty conditions over the following areas not under any Wind Signal, especially in coastal and upland/mountainous areas exposed to winds:

• Tonight through tomorrow: CALABARZON, MIMAROPA, Visayas, and the northern portions of Zamboanga Peninsula, Northern Mindanao, and Caraga.
• Tuesday: Luzon, Visayas, Zamboanga Peninsula, Basilan, Sulu, Tawi-Tawi, and the northern portion of Northern Mindanao and Dinagat Islands.
• Wednesday: Luzon and Visayas.

HAZARDS AFFECTING COASTAL WATERS
Under the influence of EGAY, a Gale Warning is in effect over several coastal waters along the northern and eastern seaboards of Northern Luzon, the eastern seaboard of Central Luzon, the seaboards of Southeastern Luzon, and the eastern seaboards of Visayas and Mindanao. Sea travel is risky for small seacrafts. For larger vessels, operating in gale conditions requires experience and properly equipped vessels. Mariners without proper experience or operating ill-equipped vessels are advised to remain in port or seek safe harbor. For more information, refer to Gale Warning #2 (Intermediate) issued at 11:00 PM today.

In the next 24 hours, EGAY may also bring moderate to rough seas (2.0 to 3.0) over the coastal waters along the western seaboard of Southern Luzon and the eastern seaboard of Mindanao outside Gale Warning area. Mariners of small seacrafts are advised to take precautionary measures when venturing over these waters. If inexperienced or operating ill-equipped vessels, avoid navigating in these conditions.

TRACK AND INTENSITY OUTLOOK
• A considerable shift in the track forecast is observed in the current bulletin.
• EGAY is forecast to track west northwestward or westward in the next 12 hours before turning generally northwestward over the Philippine Sea east of Northern and Central Luzon. A brief period of west northwestward movement from Tuesday night to Wednesday morning will bring EGAY over the Luzon Strait, resulting in a close approach over the Batanes-Babuyan Islands area by Wednesday morning. A landfall scenario over Batanes-Babuyan or northeastern mainland Cagayan is not ruled out since this is within the forecast confidence cone.
•  EGAY is forecast to continuously intensify and may reach super typhoon category by Wednesday while passing over the Balintang Channel. Interaction with the rugged terrain of Northern Luzon and Southern Taiwan will trigger a period of weakening by late Wednesday as it moves over the waters near Southern Taiwan.

Considering these developments, the public and disaster risk reduction and management offices concerned are advised to take all necessary measures to protect life and property. Persons living in areas identified to be highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards are advised to follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. For heavy rainfall warnings, thunderstorm/rainfall advisories, and other severe weather information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your local PAGASA Regional Services Division.

The next tropical cyclone bulletin will be issued at 5:00 AM tomorrow.

DOST-PAGASA

https://tinyurl.com/EgayPH